How does an authoritarian regime die? As Ernest Hemingway famously said about going broke – gradually then suddenly.
The protesters in Iran and their supporters abroad were hoping that the Islamic regime in Tehran was at the suddenly stage. The signs are, if it is dying, it is still at gradual.
The last two weeks of unrest add up to a big crisis for the regime. Iranian anger and frustration have exploded into the streets before, but the latest explosion comes on top of all the military blows inflicted on Iran in the last two years by the US and Israel.
But more significant for hard-pressed Iranians struggling to feed their families has been the impact of sanctions.
In the latest blow for the Iranian economy, all the UN sanctions lifted under the now dead 2015 nuclear deal were reimposed by the UK, Germany, and France in September. In 2025 food price inflation was more than 70%. The currency, the rial, reached a record low in December.
While the Iranian regime is under huge pressure, the evidence is that it's not about to die.
Crucially, the security forces remain loyal. Since the Islamic revolution in 1979, the Iranian authorities have created an elaborate and ruthless network of coercion and repression.
The IRGC has an auxiliary force, the Basij militia, which plays a crucial role in the regime's crackdowns against protesters.
The seeming resilience of the internal security forces indicates that the supreme leader or his lieutenants are reluctant to relax their grip. The internal conflict between the regime's desires and the citizens' demands continues, with the government looking for ways to release some pressure amid ongoing protests.
In conclusion, the resilience of the Iranian regime suggests that while protest movements may gain momentum, the overarching structure of power within Iran isn't likely to collapse suddenly, it remains subject to gradual decay unless faced with significant changes in both domestic and international dynamics.
