IMF Highlights Trade Tensions and AI Reversal as Risks to Global Economy

Mon Jan 19 2026 20:58:33 GMT+0200 (Eastern European Standard Time)

The International Monetary Fund warns that escalating trade tensions and a potential decline in the artificial intelligence boom pose significant risks to global economic growth in its latest outlook.

In its recent report, the IMF cautions that trade tensions and an unsustainable AI boom could jeopardize global economic stability. While the global economy is projected to grow by 3.3% this year, risks to this outlook remain. Continuation of tariffs and rising corporate debt related to technological investments were highlighted as crucial issues. The IMF emphasizes the importance of central bank independence for sustained macroeconomic stability.

Trade tensions and a reversal in the artificial intelligence (AI) boom are among the main risks to global economic growth, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned.

The IMF's latest world economic outlook describes the global economy as steady with growth expected to remain resilient this year, amidst threats of tariffs and changes related to AI investments.

Forecasts indicate global growth reaching 3.3%, a rise from 3.1%, before slowing slightly to 3.2% by 2027. IMF chief economist Pierre Olivier Gourinchas noted that despite disruptions, particularly from tariffs initiated by former President Donald Trump, the economy has demonstrated resilience.

However, the IMF urged caution, stating that expectations surrounding the AI boom could be overly optimistic, with the potential for an abrupt market correction affecting consumer spending and investment plans.

The report also highlights that trade tensions could escalate, introducing additional uncertainty and negatively impacting financial markets.

Furthermore, the IMF emphasizes that the independence of central banks is critical for macroeconomic stability, warning against fiscal dominance that threatens inflation control and economic goals.

Gourinchas noted that challenges to central bank independence are emerging, especially in nations with high borrowing needs, which could lead to inflation and escalating borrowing costs.

In summary, while the IMF projects positive growth for the global economy, imminent risks from trade tensions and potential fluctuations in AI-related investments necessitate careful monitoring for sustained economic stability.