In brief
President Trump's approval ratings have significantly declined since the onset of the Iran war, now hovering at around 40%, largely due to economic anxieties and rising gas prices. Polls indicate diminishing support among independent voters, crucial for his party's success in the upcoming elections. Within the Republican base, support remains steady, although overall public dissatisfaction could threaten Trump's agenda as economic pressures mount.
President Donald Trump's popularity among the American public has been eroding steadily since he returned to the White House last January. While some of this is typical for second-term American presidents, Trump's initial decline also reflects ongoing public dissatisfaction with high prices and cost-of-living – issues that have propelled Democrats to wins in a growing number of elections over the past year.
According to data by election analysis website The Downballot, Democrats did an average of 13% better in contested special elections in 2025 than they did in the same districts during the 2024 presidential election. The war in Iran has only exacerbated these economic concerns.
Polling company Ipsos found that 43% of the American public approved of Trump's handling of the economy at the start of his second term. By 23 June 2025, the number had dropped to 35%, a level it hovered around for the rest of the year. Three weeks into the Iran war, gas prices have surged to an average near $4 a gallon, leading to further declines in Trump's economic approval rating, which has now fallen to just 29%.
That mark is lower than any recorded for Joe Biden during his four years in the White House, even amidst a post-Covid inflation crisis. Economic anxiety has contributed to Democratic victories in recent elections and indicates a possible drag on Trump's net approval rating.
At the start of his second term, a polling average by Nate Silver placed Trump's approval at 52%. However, amid the ongoing Iran conflict and rising consumer prices, only 40% of Americans currently have a positive view of him, posing significant risks for his administration just months before midterm elections.
At a recent Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), right-wing politicians and activists expressed the urgent need for GOP fortunes to shift, warning that a failure to retain Congressional control could jeopardize their agenda. A recent Quinnipiac poll revealed that while 86% of Republicans approve of U.S. military action in Iran, these numbers drop significantly among the wider public.
Independent voters, previously integral to Trump's electoral victories, now show signs of discontent with his administration, complicating the GOP's path as November approaches. Unless the political dynamics shift, the growing division among independent voters could undermine the party's chances in the upcoming elections.
