U.S. President Donald Trump has indicated that he may send troops to seize control of Iran's key oil export terminal at Kharg Island in the northern Gulf. So what's behind this, how would it work and what are the risks?
Kharg Island has long been Iran's chief outlet for its oil exports. The island sits offshore with waters deep enough to load product onto tankers known as Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs), which can hold around two million barrels. Around 90% of Iran's oil exports pass through Kharg.
During the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, it was frequently bombed by the Iraqi Air Force and on 13 March this year, the U.S. struck what it said were 90 military targets on the island, but spared the oil infrastructure.
If the U.S. decides to invade Kharg Island, it would most likely be a temporary measure intended to put pressure on Iran by cutting off its fuel exports until it relinquished its chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz – one of the world's busiest oil shipping lanes – and conceded to Washington's demands. However, given the resilience of the Iranian regime, it remains questionable whether this strategy would be effective.
Iran's parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, has warned that his country's forces would rain down fire on any invading U.S. troops. Iran has reportedly reinforced its defenses on the island, including with surface-to-air missile batteries.
Iran has accused the U.S. of duplicity by proposing peace talks while simultaneously dispatching troops to the region, comprising nearly 5,000 Marines and 2,000 paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne Division, fueling speculation they could also be used to seize and hold Kharg.
In theory, the paratroopers could launch an airborne assault at night to seize strategic positions on this small island, measuring just 20 sq km. Meanwhile, U.S. Marines would deploy from ships equipped with tilt-rotor aircraft and landing crafts, though they would first need to navigate through the Iranian-controlled Strait of Hormuz, facing potential threats from hidden Iranian drone and missile sites.
A landing would likely be met with anti-personnel mines and swarms of drones, and while U.S. Marine Expeditionary Units (MEU) are extremely capable, it could lead to significant casualties. After the initial assault, holding the ground while under bombardment from the Iranian mainland would present its own challenges.
For context, comparisons can be drawn with Ukraine's Snake Island, captured by Russia during its 2022 invasion, which ultimately became unsustainable amid continuous attacks from Ukrainian forces.
Such a prolonged U.S. occupation of Iranian territory would likely provoke dissatisfaction among the American public and Trump’s supporters, who had elected him on a pledge to avoid entanglements in foreign military conflicts.
Despite rumors surrounding a possible ground assault, U.S. statements indicate ongoing diplomatic efforts with Iran, further complicating the situation.
There are also other strategic islands that the U.S. might consider beyond Kharg Island, including Larak Island, directly near the Strait of Hormuz, and Qeshm, the largest island in the Gulf which may house Iranian military assets.
In conclusion, while the U.S. has substantial military capabilities, the complexities surrounding a potential strike on Kharg Island pose significant strategic risks, potentially complicating an already tense geopolitical landscape.
