India could soon get a lot thinner - at least in theory. On Friday, the patent on semaglutide - the molecule behind Danish drugmaker Novo Nordisk's blockbuster weight-loss drugs Wegovy and Ozempic - expires in the country.

This will allow domestic pharmaceutical companies to release cheaper copies or generics, triggering a rush of competition that could slash prices by more than half and rapidly expand access for people in India, and eventually in other countries too. Investment bank Jefferies has called it a potential magic-pill moment for India, predicting the semaglutide market could eventually reach $1bn domestically with the right pricing and uptake.

Analysts expect around 50 branded semaglutide generics to enter the market within months - a familiar pattern in India's fiercely competitive pharmaceutical industry. When the diabetes drug sitagliptin went off patent in 2022, about 30 branded versions appeared within a month and nearly 100 within a year. India's pharmaceutical industry, currently worth about $60bn, is expected to double by 2030. Much of it is built on generics - a manufacturing muscle that now sets the stage for fierce competition over semaglutide.

Originally developed to treat diabetes, these drugs are now being hailed as game changers for weight loss, offering results that few previous treatments could match. Semaglutide belongs to a class of medicines known as GLP-1 receptor agonists, which mimic a hormone that regulates appetite and blood sugar.

By boosting insulin release and slowing the emptying of the stomach, the drugs make people feel full sooner and stay full longer. According to Sheetal Sapale, vice-president at research firm Pharmarack, major firms including Cipla, Sun Pharma, Dr Reddy's Laboratories, Biocon, Natco, Zydus and Mankind Pharma are readying branded generics, with many more likely to follow. Prices are expected to fall sharply.

Current monthly treatment costs are steep: Ozempic typically sells for 8,800 - 11,000 rupees ($95-$119; £71-£89), while Wegovy can cost 10,000-16,000 rupees ($108-$173). Sapale expects generic competition to push that down to roughly 3,000-5,000 rupees ($36-54) per month. Lower prices could transform the market.

With more than 77 million people diagnosed with type 2 diabetes and a rapidly growing number of overweight adults, the demand for effective weight-loss solutions in India is significant. While excitement builds around the upcoming generic versions of semaglutide, experts urge caution about potential quality issues and misuse as access to these drugs expands.

The government is also trying to temper the hype this week, warning pharmaceutical companies against promoting prescription weight-loss medicines directly to consumers. As India stands on the brink of a pharmaceutical revolution, the balance between affordability and oversight will be crucial in the coming months.