What One Country’s Experiment Says About Attempts to Boost Birth Rates
On a park bench in Debrecen, Barbara Elek and her husband Levi wait for the email that will tell them if they are pregnant. After their third round of IVF, their hope hinges on a national government policy that promised them a 10‑million‑forint (about £25,000) loan and a mortgage subsidy if they had two children.
Hungary’s 2010 pronatalist package—signed in the wake of former prime minister Viktor Orbán’s re‑election—offered interest‑free loans, tax breaks and child‑benefit incentives to couples who pledged to increase the national birth rate. For many, these incentives lifted the fertility rate from 1.25 to a peak of 1.59 in 2020, but the rise was short‑lived. By 2025 the rate fell to 1.31, near the level before the policy began.
Experts point to a patchwork of factors: low immigration, high living costs, economic instability, and cultural attitudes toward gender roles. While cash incentives can spur a brief uptick, they cannot counteract a broader climate of uncertainty. In the countryside, loans helped many lower‑middle‑class families start or grow, but inflation eroded their value and city parents – where fertility is lowest – saw little benefit.
Barbara and Levi’s experience highlights policy risks. As they calculate repayment terms and potential penalties, they face financial insecurity because the child they hoped for did not materialise. Their story mirrors that of many Hungarian couples: one‑in‑five who took the loans never had a child, prompting the new government to review the policy’s effectiveness.
Internationally, similar attempts have followed – South Korea’s large cash “baby bonus” and subsidised childcare still struggle with a declining birth rate, and Sweden’s extensive parental leave and childcare package stunted a long‑term decline but saw a drop in the 2010s. These comparisons suggest that comprehensive, easily accessible services linked to gender parity – not merely short‑term money – are the most resilient strategy for improving fertility rates around the globe.
