Three weeks after the joint US-Israeli war against Iran began, the conflict has reached a fuzzy state of mixed messages and uncertainty, with Donald Trump's public comments often seemingly contradicted by realities on the ground.
The war is very complete, pretty much, Trump has said, but new American ground forces – including a Marine expeditionary unit - are moving into the region. It is winding down, but US and Israeli bombing and missile strikes on Iranian targets continue unabated.
Opening the Strait of Hormuz, the geographic choke point through which 20% of the world's oil export travels, is a simple military manoeuvre, but for now only Iranian-approved ships are transiting the waters. The Iranian military is gone, but drones and missiles are still striking targets in the region, reaching as far as the joint US-UK base in Diego Garcia.
In a Saturday evening post on Truth Social, Trump threatened an escalation, warning that if Iran didn't fully open, without threat Hormuz in 48 hours, the US military would begin targeting Iranian power plants, starting with the biggest.
The day before, however, he had used his social media website to provide a numbered list of American military objectives for the Iran war, which he said the US was getting really close to fulfilling.
The objectives included degrading or destroying Iran's military, its defense infrastructure, and its nuclear weapons program, along with protecting American allies in the region. Notably, the goal of securing the Strait of Hormuz was not included, which Trump stated should be the responsibility of other nations reliant on oil exports.
In his latest outline of objectives, it is suggested that the US might conclude operations in Iraq while Iran's current regime remains, as well as its oil exports and control over the Strait of Hormuz intact.
Trump has recently noted that a ground force of about 2,500 soldiers is on the way to the Middle East, with some military analysts suggesting the US could be preparing to capture Kharg Island, which hosts Iran's primary oil export terminal.
Recent media reports have indicated that the Trump administration is preparing to request approximately $200 billion for the ongoing Iranian military operation, suggesting a long and costly engagement.
The response from Congress has been cautious, with GOP representatives demanding clarity on military objectives and funding for ongoing actions.
The conflict presents a murky future with potential ramifications for US military strategy and international relations, including the threat of Iranian retaliation should US ground forces escalate operations further.
