Just seven days after he made the fateful decision to launch his coup against the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi on 1 February 2021, General Min Aung Hlaing made a promise; to hold elections, and return to civilian rule, within a year. It has taken him five years to fulfill that promise.

Today, the newly-elected parliament will choose him to be the next president. Min Aung Hlaing has already stepped down as armed forces commander, as required by the constitution before he can take the post of president. But this is civilian rule in name only.

The parliament, sitting for the first time since the coup, is filled with his loyalists. With the armed forces guaranteed one quarter of the seats, and the military's own party, the USDP, winning nearly 80% of the remaining seats in an election which was tilted heavily in its favour, this was a preordained outcome. More of a coronation, than an election.

Military men are also likely to dominate the new government when it is formed. Min Aung Hlaing has ensured that a staunch ally, General Ye Win Oo, a hardliner with a reputation for brutality, replaces him at the head of the armed forces. He has also created a new consultative council, which will exercise paramount authority over civilian and military affairs. He is ensuring that in taking off his uniform, he does not dilute his power.

For young activists like Kyaw Win – not his real name – all hope of change has gone. As a student, he was arrested for taking part in a flash mob protest against the coup in 2022 and tortured for a week before being jailed. He was only recently released. The five years since Min Aung Hlaing's coup have been a catastrophe for Myanmar.

His decision to use lethal force against the mass protests which broke out across the country ignited a civil war that has killed thousands, displaced millions, and ruined the economy. The military regime has ceded control of huge areas of the country to the armed resistance. The conflict in Myanmar will remain largely unchanged as General Ye Win Oo is not expected to take a different approach.

Despite the challenges faced by citizens, including rampant inflation and shortages of basic goods and fuel, the military leadership shows no inclination towards reform or reconciliation. They defend their actions as necessary for maintaining order and stability, dismissing opposition as terrorist activities. The ongoing hardships and struggles faced by the Burmese people underscore the fragility of the situation and raise questions about the future of Myanmar under military rule.