Honduran Election on a Knife-Edge: Implications of Trump's Influence

Thu Dec 04 2025 20:20:42 GMT+0200 (Eastern European Standard Time)

As the tight election in Honduras unfolds, former Vice-President Salvador Nasralla takes a narrow lead over Nasry Asfura, with U.S. President Trump's interests hanging in the balance, raising questions about external influence on Honduran sovereignty.

With two-thirds of ballots counted in the critical Honduran election, Salvador Nasralla holds a thin lead over rival Nasry Asfura. Despite the close contest, President Trump seeks an Asfura victory, allegedly trying to manipulate the election process. Observers criticize Trump's interference as a violation of Honduran autonomy, harkening back to Cold War dynamics. The outcome of the election could also shape the fate of ex-President Juan Orlando Hernandez, recently pardoned by Trump after serving a year in U.S. prison on drug charges, fueling further controversy and debate.

With a little over two-thirds of the ballots in the Honduras election tallied, the lead has changed hands. The former vice-president, Salvador Nasralla, has a small but potentially significant lead over his rival, the conservative former mayor of Tegucigalpa, Nasry Asfura. Yet Asfura's National Party continues to brief journalists that they have the numbers for an eventual win.

The race remains on a knife-edge.

In Washington, President Donald Trump has staked his hopes on nothing less than an outright Asfura victory and has tried to directly influence the race in support of his favored candidate.

Whether it's been intimating that funds could be withheld from the impoverished Central American nation or making unsubstantiated allegations of electoral fraud, many in Honduras see the US president's fingerprints all over this election.

To Honduran political analyst, Josue Murillo, it smacks of the kind of treatment Honduras expected from Washington during the Cold War.

Irrespective of whether the National Party goes on to victory, one of their key figures is already celebrating. On Monday, ex-President Juan Orlando Hernandez walked out of jail in Virginia a free man having served just one year of a 45-year sentence for drug-smuggling and weapons charges. His release came after Trump urged Honduran voters to cast their ballots for Asfura.

So, when Hernandez was arrested in 2022, then extradited to the United States and eventually jailed, most Hondurans celebrated it as a rare moment of justice. Trump has claimed the opposite, suggesting a conspiracy against the former president.

As the ballots continue to be tallied in this knife-edge election, it remains uncertain whether Trump's interference will lead to the desired outcome in Honduras and what that will mean for the future of the country.