The best hope for the ceasefire talks in Pakistan is that both the United States and Iran have strong reasons to call a halt to the war. The biggest obstacle to their success is a total absence of trust, no discernible common ground and the fact that Israel, America's full partner in the war, has hugely escalated its onslaught on Lebanon.
US President Donald Trump is already speaking about the war in the past tense. He has declared victory and needs an exit. Not only does he have a state visit from King Charles in the diary for later this month, followed by a summit with China's President Xi Jinping in May, there are midterm elections in November. With America's summer holiday season looming, Trump also needs petrol prices to fall back to where they were before he went to war. Royal visits, summits and elections do not mix well with wars.
Iran's regime has its own reasons to end the war. It is as defiant as ever and is still able to launch missiles and drones, with its social media warriors pouring out AI videos lampooning Donald Trump. However, Iran is experiencing economic standstill and needs time to regroup, leveraging the talks in Pakistan to strengthen its position.
The Pakistani intermediaries tasked with bridging the gap between the two delegations face daunting challenges as declared positions are drastically apart. Trump has outlined a 15-point plan that has leaked suggesting it sounds more like a surrender document, while Iran's 10-point demands have been consistently rejected by the US.
Reopening the strategically important Strait of Hormuz has become the central issue in negotiations, as keeping it closed gives Iran a chokehold on the world economy. Millions of civilians in the Middle East caught up in this conflict hope these talks lead to an end to hostilities.
The long-term consequences of the conflict are reshaping Middle Eastern geopolitics, and while the Iranian regime may be battered, it remains intact. The strategic edge for Iran surrounding the closure of the Strait of Hormuz showcases tactical failures transformed into potential strategic gains.
Netanyahu's aggressive policies may jeopardize ceasefire negotiations, and Israel's claim that they are only targeting Hezbollah is seen by many Lebanese as an attack on Lebanon itself, leading to further civilian displacement.
The implications of renewed conflict are dire not just for the Middle East, but for global trade, as the world watches closely while the US's foreign policy direction raises significant concerns.
Ultimately, both sides must find common ground to avoid a return to war, as mere survival becomes the narrative for a regime that has controlled Iran for decades.
