Throughout US President Donald Trump's second term in office, traders have been betting millions of dollars just before he makes major announcements. The BBC has examined trade volume data on several financial markets and matched them to some of the president's most significant market-moving statements. It found a consistent pattern of spikes just hours, or sometimes minutes, before a social media post or media interview was made public. Some analysts say it bears the hallmarks of illegal insider trading, whereby bets are made by people based on information that is not available to the general public. Others say the picture is more complicated and that some traders have become more adept at anticipating the president's interventions. Here are five of the most significant examples.
**9 March 2026: 'The war is very complete, pretty much'**
Some of the biggest movements have been in oil trades on the futures market. Nine days into the US-Israel war with Iran, Trump told CBS News in a phone interview that the conflict was 'very complete, pretty much'. This sparked a surge in oil bets just before this announcement, with prices reacting sharply post-interview.
**23 March 2026: 'Complete and total resolution to hostilities'**
Just days after threatening to 'obliterate' Iran's power plants, Trump announced productive talks with Tehran. Trading data showed abnormal spikes in oil trades before the declaration, corroborating concerns over the integrity of the markets.
**9 April 2025: 'Liberation Day' pause**
Trump’s announcement of sweeping tariffs led to a market plunge, but a subsequent 90-day pause for all countries except China resulted in a massive stock market surge. Evidence shows an unusual amount of trading activity preceding these announcements.
**3 Jan 2026: Maduro seized**
A user betting on Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro's ousting saw a staggering return on investment after the leader was seized, indicating the lucrative potential for those acting on insider knowledge.
**28 Feb 2026: Strikes on Iran**
Additional users on prediction markets profited following Trump’s confirmation of strikes on Iran, raising questions about the regulatory oversight of such trading behavior.
The issue of insider trading law enforcement is complex, with many legal experts suggesting that without a reliable source of information, prosecutions are unlikely. With ongoing scrutiny of online prediction markets, the implications for market regulation and the integrity of financial transactions are more pertinent than ever.
**9 March 2026: 'The war is very complete, pretty much'**
Some of the biggest movements have been in oil trades on the futures market. Nine days into the US-Israel war with Iran, Trump told CBS News in a phone interview that the conflict was 'very complete, pretty much'. This sparked a surge in oil bets just before this announcement, with prices reacting sharply post-interview.
**23 March 2026: 'Complete and total resolution to hostilities'**
Just days after threatening to 'obliterate' Iran's power plants, Trump announced productive talks with Tehran. Trading data showed abnormal spikes in oil trades before the declaration, corroborating concerns over the integrity of the markets.
**9 April 2025: 'Liberation Day' pause**
Trump’s announcement of sweeping tariffs led to a market plunge, but a subsequent 90-day pause for all countries except China resulted in a massive stock market surge. Evidence shows an unusual amount of trading activity preceding these announcements.
**3 Jan 2026: Maduro seized**
A user betting on Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro's ousting saw a staggering return on investment after the leader was seized, indicating the lucrative potential for those acting on insider knowledge.
**28 Feb 2026: Strikes on Iran**
Additional users on prediction markets profited following Trump’s confirmation of strikes on Iran, raising questions about the regulatory oversight of such trading behavior.
The issue of insider trading law enforcement is complex, with many legal experts suggesting that without a reliable source of information, prosecutions are unlikely. With ongoing scrutiny of online prediction markets, the implications for market regulation and the integrity of financial transactions are more pertinent than ever.
