In brief
In a pivotal meeting, Myanmar's military ruler Min Aung Hlaing, who wrested power from a democratically elected government in 2021, made his first official visit to China amid ongoing civil conflict in his country.
Min Aung Hlaing's arrival in Kunming, Yunnan province marks an important diplomatic gesture from China, signifying its ongoing support for the military leader despite the regime's setbacks in the civil war. Highlighting his isolation since the coup that saw Aung San Suu Kyi ousted, this trip is particularly meaningful as it comes after a series of defeats suffered by his military forces against localized insurgents.This visit, though not a formal state event, underscores the necessity for China to maintain strategic ties with its neighbor, which has been embroiled in discord since the military's takeover. Leading a delegation enriched with officials and business representatives, Min Aung Hlaing partook in a minor summit of the Greater Mekong Sub-region, alongside leaders from several authoritarian regimes including Laos, Cambodia, and Vietnam.While there, he is anticipated to meet with Chinese Premier Li Qiang, who currently oversees the summit. This gathering reflects China's careful handling of diplomatic relations. With ongoing concerns about the potential fallout of a complete military collapse in Myanmar, Beijing has sought to stabilize the situation by urging Min Aung Hlaing to propose a timeline for restoring elections.The visit signals China’s complex position; while it is aware of the junta's poor governance and military failures, the Chinese government seems resolute in working with current authorities to ensure regional stability. This comes in light of rising ethnic insurgencies which have leveraged against the military regime, complicating Chinese interests.Myanmar's opposition, particularly the National Unity Government (NUG), vehemently denounced the overture, suggesting that even indirect recognition of the junta by China poses risks for the sentiment of the Myanmar populace. Concerns were raised over the discordance this visit may create amongst civilians who desire democracy and peace, as articulated by the NUG spokesperson.Meanwhile, with Western influence waning and other regional entities like India and ASEAN struggling with effective intervention, China appears to be the solitary power capable of mediating peace in Myanmar. The stakes are high, as Beijing balances its economic ambitions against the backdrop of an increasingly volatile Myanmar.
