In brief
Nearly three years of sanctions against Russia have been met with mixed results, leading to ongoing debates about their effectiveness. As Trump prepares to take office, experts weigh in on how sanctions may play a pivotal role in negotiations regarding the Ukraine conflict.
Now, over 1,000 days into the conflict initiated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, an array of sanctions targeting Russian banks, businesses, and individuals by various countries has drastically altered the economic landscape. With President-elect Donald J. Trump advocating a more restrained use of sanctions and promising a shift in U.S. policy, the dialogue surrounding these economic measures gains renewed urgency.Experts have differing views on the effectiveness of sanctions, especially as early assumptions of their swift impact have not materialized. Despite predictions that heavy restrictions would quickly cripple President Vladimir V. Putin's administration or significantly devalue the ruble, evidence suggests that the sanctions have done little to topple his regime. Instead, Putin remains firmly in power, and Russian forces continue to engage aggressively in Ukraine.Sergei Guriev, an economist familiar with the situation, emphasizes that the notion of sanctions rapidly ending the war was overly optimistic. He argues that much of the initial enthusiasm surrounding sanctions as a means of fostering rapid change was more hopeful thinking than a realistic strategy. As Trump takes office, the effectiveness of the sanctions—and their potential role as leverage in negotiations—will remain a pivotal and contentious topic in discussions regarding the future of the conflict in Ukraine.
