In brief
Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk has sounded a warning that the coming months could be “critical” as Russia is alleged to be planning armed provocations in the region, according to U.S. intelligence. Tusk said Poland would prepare for a range of scenarios, while stressing that the threat is most palpable in the Baltic states. The Kremlin’s purported plan could involve missile or drone attacks, or even a ground incursion, seeking to pressure NATO allies to limit aid to Ukraine. Poland remains on alert and will rely on intelligence from its partners, as the country heads to a NATO summit in Turkey next week. The debate underscores the broader security concerns in Eastern Europe and the extent to which NATO’s collective defence could be tested.
Poland’s prime minister has warned that the coming months may be critical amid a Russian threat.
Donald Tusk responded to reports that Moscow could launch an armed “provocation” in Poland to test NATO’s resolve, citing U.S. intelligence.
The prime minister said, “I don’t mean to scare anyone, but the coming months may truly be critical, also due to the changing nature of the war. These concerns are particularly palpable in the Baltic states.”
Polish media outlet Onet reported that sources close to President Karol Nawrocki claimed the U.S. had issued several warnings to Warsaw about a plot to attack the country.
Under the alleged plan—also reported by the Telegraph—Polish infrastructure could be targeted by missiles or drones, and army units could be sent into the NATO state.
The aim would be to pressure Ukraine’s western allies to suspend aid, as the country continues to fight Russia’s full‑scale invasion begun in 2022.
Tusk stressed that Poland would prepare for various situations, noting that allies’ intelligence was critical: “We are aware of the threats, also thanks to information from our allies.”
President Nawrocki will meet NATO leaders in Turkey next week, where the summit is expected to reaffirm Europe’s commitment to increase defence spending and support weapons for Ukraine.
Tusk has previously warned that Russia could attack a NATO member in a matter of months, and his deputy has cautioned about potential Russian false‑flag operations.
Baltic states, such as Latvia and Lithuania, have expressed concerns about Russian hybrid warfare tactics—missiles, drones, and other provocations—against Polish forces.
Under NATO’s Article 5, an armed attack on one member is treated as an attack on all, prompting collective defence commitments among allies.
