Marine Le Pen’s appeal verdict could change France’s presidential race

By Paul Kirby, Europe Digital Editor

On Tuesday, a Paris appeal court will decide whether Marine Le Pen, leader of the National Rally, can participate in France’s 2027 presidential election. The case hinges on a 2025 conviction for embezzling €1.4 million from European Parliament funds, which carried a five‑year ban from public office.

Le Pen has contested the conviction, arguing the scheme was a result of “a mistake” that benefited her party. If the court upholds the ban, the five‑year restriction would already have been in effect since March 31, 2025, preventing her from running. A reduced suspension or a full acquittal would keep her eligible for the 2027 vote.

Her fate is pivotal because she is currently leading the polls, and with fewer than ten months before the first round on April 18, 2027, the verdict could set the campaign in motion. If barred, National Rally will rely on Jordan Bardella, the party’s current chairman, as a stand‑in. Bardella’s age and relative inexperience are points of debate, but polling shows he is already ahead of Le Pen’s own numbers by the margin expected in a first round.

What the verdict could mean

• Acquittal: Le Pen would face no restriction and could run freely, but the court has deemed this outcome unlikely.


• Guilty with full ban: A five‑year public office ban would keep her from campaigning.


• Guilty with reduced ban: A two‑year or less suspension would allow her to stand.


• Guilty with electronic tag: A four‑year sentence featuring one year under an electronic tag could still hinder her ability to rally.


• Appealing to the Court of Cassation: Le Pen could challenge the decision immediately, but this would delay campaigning.

Le Pen has expressed calmness ahead of the verdict, stating the outcome would be painful but not final. After the verdict, she plans to declare her intentions on the main evening news program.

Le Pen’s Plan B

Since her conviction, National Rally has rallying behind Jordan Bardella as a potential presidential candidate. If Le Pen is barred from running, Bardella would become the official nominee and, if elected, would likely serve as prime minister.

Who else is on trial

The original case involved 25 National Rally members; 12 were found guilty in March 2025, and 12 appealed. Notable figures include Louis Aliot, Nicolas Bay, Bruno Gollnisch, Catherine Griset, and Wallerand de Saint‑Just, all receiving various sentences or bans.