Can Hamas Reinvent Itself Amidst Declining Power?

Tue Oct 21 2025 21:22:57 GMT+0300 (Eastern European Summer Time)

In light of significant recent setbacks, Hamas may be facing a critical juncture in its history, provoking a potential reinvention amidst struggles for authority in Gaza.

Hamas, once a formidable force in Gaza, is grappling with decreasing influence and leadership due to ongoing violence and past failures. The dynamics of control are shifting, with the potential for rebranding or an international stabilisation force. However, skepticism remains about its willingness to lose power or weapons, as reports of internal brutality and a desire to maintain authority persist.

How does a group that has governed the Gaza Strip for almost 20 years, ruling two million Palestinians with an iron rod and fighting Israel in repeated wars, suddenly lay down its arms and relinquish control?

Judging by a steady stream of gruesome images emerging from Gaza since the ceasefire came into effect on 10 October, Hamas seems intent on reasserting its authority.

Its masked men, back on the streets, have been seen beating and executing opponents. Impromptu firing squads have dispatched kneeling men they say are members of rival groups, including some of Gaza's powerful clans.

Other victims, cowering in terror, are shot in the legs or beaten with heavy clubs.

Some of those now being attacked by Hamas had been part of groups involved in looting and diverting aid, exacerbating the humanitarian crisis. The UN has accused criminal gangs of stealing aid.

This is not yet a world in which, as US President Donald Trump's 20-point Gaza peace plan envisages, Hamas fighters turn over their weapons, submit to an amnesty, leave Gaza and hand over to an international stabilisation force.

For his part, President Trump initially seemed ambivalent about the brutality. On his way to Israel on 13 October, he signalled the US had given Hamas - designated a terrorist group by the US, UK, Israel and others - a green light to restore order.

He later hardened his tone, stating, If Hamas continues to kill people in Gaza, which was not the Deal, we will have no choice but to go in and kill them. So, where does this leave Hamas?

Amidst turmoil in Gaza, people are split on Hamas’s future. Many believe that Hamas is "tired of war," as described by former adviser, Ahmed Yousef, who indicated the need for a different approach. He explained that many within Hamas are not interested in ruling Gaza anymore, citing exhaustion from prolonged conflict.

Nonetheless, with over 100,000 members, Hamas's influence may persist in different forms. Observers postulate that the group may try to rebrand itself, employing methods reminiscent of the ANC's shift from guerrilla warfare to legitimate political participation in South Africa.

Even with ongoing analysis of Hamas's military capabilities and its expansive underground tunnel network, the future remains unpredictable. Intense international scrutiny and internal dissent could lead to significant transformations, but Hamas's embedded presence and institutional connection to violence will be challenging to dissolve all at once.