Beef Prices Surge: Can Trump's Policy Changes Make a Difference?

As beef prices soar, Donald Trump proposes strategies to curb rising costs. However, ranchers express concerns over potential negative impacts and market consolidation challenges.

US beef prices are climbing, prompting political discourse as even Donald Trump addresses the inflation issue that threatens his grocery price promises. Proposed solutions aimed at improving cattle production are meeting resistance from ranchers worried about their livelihoods. With prices for beef doubling general food inflation and a significant decline in cattle ranchers since 1980, industry experts point to market consolidation and persistent supply chain issues. Trump's recent plans to ramp up importation from Argentina further complicate the situation, leading to widespread skepticism among cattle producers regarding effective solutions.

Beef prices have gotten so high in the US that it has become a political problem. Even Donald Trump, who long ago declared inflation dead, is talking about it, as the issue threatens to undercut his promises to bring down grocery prices for Americans.

This week, he took to social media, urging ranchers to lower prices for their cattle.

But his demand - and other proposals his administration has floated to address the issue - has sparked a backlash among ranchers, who worry some of his solutions will make it harder for them to make a living, while making little dent at the grocery store.

The number of beef cattle farmers and ranchers in the US has dwindled steadily since 1980, reducing domestic supplies and driving up prices, as demand remains high. The country's cattle inventory has fallen to its lowest level in nearly 75 years, while the US has lost more than 150,000 cattle ranches just since 2017 - a 17% drop, according to the Agriculture Department.

Ranchers say they are under pressure from four decades of consolidation among the meat processors that buy their livestock, while high costs for key inputs like fertiliser and equipment have intensified the strain.

The contraction in the industry has worsened, as several years of drought have forced ranchers to slash their herds.

Christian Lovell, a cattle rancher in Illinois, said parts of his farm that were lush and grassy when he was a child have now dried up, limiting where his cows can graze.

Retail prices for ground beef rose 12.9% over the 12 months to September, and beef steaks were up 16.6%, according to US inflation data published Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. A pound of ground chuck now costs an average of $6.33 (£4.75), compared with $5.58 a year ago.

The Agriculture Department this week unveiled what it called a big package aimed at ramping up domestic beef production, by opening more land for cattle grazing and supporting small meat processors. That proposal came after Trump drew the ire of ranchers when he proposed to import more beef from Argentina, potentially quadrupling the purchases.

Despite calls for action, industry experts remain skeptical that the initiatives will substantially lower prices, citing the intricate challenges posed by market consolidation and fluctuating supply dynamics.