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Arab Votes Could Hold Israel’s Election Deciding Power

In Israel’s next election, Arab‑majority parties may swing the balance of power as communities rally to challenge a right‑wing coalition.

Source: bbc.co.uk2 min read

In brief

The 2026 Israeli general election sees Arab‑majority parties poised to hold the balance of power amid a near‑stalemate between Netanyahu’s coalition and the centre‑right Change Bloc. Young Arab citizens in Nazareth are canvassing to boost turnout, motivated by a desire to oust the extremist government that treats them as second‑class. Polls suggest both blocs could secure about half the Knesset seats, leaving the 13‑14 seats held by Arab lists as kingmakers, while the Change Bloc’s refusal to cooperate with Arab parties could force former allies to rethink their alliances.

At rush hour in Nazareth, the largest Arab‑majority city in Israel, students hand out leaflets urging motorists to vote in next week’s tightly contested general election. The campaign aims to boost turnout among Arab Israelis, who often vote in the minority but now face a unique opportunity to sway the political outcome.

Polls show neither Netanyahu’s right‑wing coalition nor the centre‑right Change Bloc led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot has a clear path to a parliamentary majority. This places the 13‑14 seats held by Arab‑majority lists in the Knesset at a critical bargaining point. If neither bloc can secure a majority, they may need to form alliances that include Arab parties, a prospect that has been met with skepticism by many Arab politicians.

In the past, Arab citizen turnout has lagged behind their Jewish counterparts due to disaffection and a perception of exclusion from national politics. The current election, however, carries great symbolic weight as it coincides with a desire to dismantle an extremist government that has, critics say, treated Arabs as second‑class citizens. Young activists like Arkan Badran, 23, are calling on Arab voters to support the Joint List and United Arab List to bring future‑oriented change.

Despite the political stakes, Arab‑majority parties face significant hurdles. Leaders of the Change Bloc have publicly declined to cooperate with Arab parties, citing differing values. Moreover, societal tensions have surged since the Hamas assault in October 2023, with reports of systemic discrimination and politicised violence against Arab citizens. The Supreme Court’s recent decision to reinstate the United Arab List and Joint List after their disqualification underscores the precarious legal environment surrounding Arab representation.

The issue of gang violence is a top priority for Arab voters. A recent poll by the Israel Democracy Institute found that more than 50% of Arab citizens consider gang crime the strongest factor in choosing a party. The high murder rate in Arab communities—approximately five times that of Jewish Israelis—exacerbates calls for stronger representation in decision‑making bodies. Arab leaders argue that only through participation in the Knesset can they secure resources and policy changes to address these challenges.

As election day approaches, the silence in the streets of Nazareth has been shattered by the sight of cars bearing party flags and the chant of “Right or Palestine? – voter choice.” The next Israeli government will be elected by a population that, for the first time in many years, sees the outcome as a direct investment into their own future security and equity.

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