The National Center for Meteorology has issued a detailed Monday forecast, announcing thunderstorms accompanied by hail and strong gusty winds across several regions of Saudi Arabia, as well as fog in the north and turbulent sea conditions along the Red Sea and Arabian Gulf. The report, released by the Saudi Press Agency (SPA) on November 1, 2026, specifies wind speeds and sea conditions expected for Monday, November 2, 2026.
According to SPA, thunderstorms with hail and high winds are expected in the western province of Jazan, the mountainous region of Al‑Aseer, the high‑land province of Al‑Baha, the eastern province, and the southern parts of the Makkah region. These storms are anticipated to bring gusts of wind between 12 and 32 km/h in the northern and central parts of the Red Sea, while the southern part will experience southerly to southwesterly winds that shift to northeasterly to southeasterly winds in the evening, also ranging from 12 to 32 km/h and soaring to 40 km/h near the Bab al‑Mandab Strait. The sea in the Red Sea will be calm to choppy, with waves from half a meter to over two meters in height.
In the Arabian Gulf, winds will shift to southeasterly to northeasterly, reaching speeds of 10 to 32 km/h in the northern part of the Gulf, and exceeding 50 km/h when thunderstorms hit the region. In the southern Gulf, winds will range from 10 to 28 km/h, moving from northeasterly to northwesterly. Sea conditions here will also vary from half a meter to over two meters in waves, making the water calm to choppy.
Fog is forecast for portions of the Jazan, Al‑Aseer, Al‑Baha, and Eastern provinces, as well as in southern areas of the Makkah region. Additionally, cloud cover and low visibility are expected over parts of the Northern Border and Al‑Jouf zones, extending fog in these areas and potentially affecting transportation routes.
Thunderstorms are weather systems that involve rapid upward movement of warm, moist air, leading to cloud formations, lightning, and thunder. Hail forms when water droplets are carried upward in strong updrafts and freeze into ice crystals before falling to the ground as solid ice. The presence of hail during these storms suggests vigorous atmospheric instability and large temperature gradients. In the forecast, the combination of hail and gusty winds indicates that the storms will be particularly intense.
Wind gusts refer to sudden, brief increases in wind speed above the normal sustained wind. In this forecast, wind gusts of up to 50 km/h are expected in the Gulf region, creating hazardous conditions for both land and sea activities. The wind direction changes throughout the day, especially over the Red Sea, implying shifting pressure systems and contributing to the complexity of forecasting.
Sea wave height is a technical metric that indicates how tall the waves can rise. The forecast cites wave heights from half a meter to over two meters. These wave conditions are considered “calm to choppy” and can impact maritime activities such as ferry operations, oil platforms, and shipping lanes. Rough seas also influence the risk of spray and reduced visibility for vessels near the coast.
The highlighted meteorological parameters—thunderstorms, hail, and high winds—are typical of a vigorous synoptic system traveling across the Arabian Peninsula, often associated with the movement of a low‑pressure trough or a latitudinal temperature gradient. Quantitative precipitation estimation tools used by meteorological centers, such as radar reflectivity data, likely helped in predicting the hail potential, although the report does not detail the instrumentation used.
Scientific implication: the forecast illustrates how coupled atmospheric and oceanic processes can create a range of hazards over a single day: lightning and hail from convective clouds, wind shear causing ship handling complications, fog reducing road safety, and wave growth jeopardizing marine transport. Each of these factors originates from dynamic vertical air motion, temperature gradients, and moisture distribution across the region, all elements that forecast models rely upon to generate their predictions.
Operational impact: The National Center for Meteorology’s announcement is intended to prompt pre‑emptive measures by local authorities, road agencies, and the maritime service. Drivers may need to avoid low‑visibility zones during early morning fog, while shipping companies might adjust routes to avoid the predicted high‑wave, high‑wind corridor near the Bab al‑Mandab Strait. Pilots in the Arabian Gulf will likely be advised to monitor for sudden wind changes that could affect flight stability.
For the public, the key takeaways from the SPA report are to stay informed about the evolving weather warnings, especially if planning outdoor activities during the daytime or traveling through the affected provinces. Official briefings from local government bodies are expected to offer guidance on personal safety and logistical planning on Monday.
In conclusion, the Saudi meteorological authority has provided a technically detailed weather forecast that forecasts hazardous conditions across a broad area of the kingdom. The report’s inclusion of specific wind speed ranges, wave heights, and regional guidance demonstrates the complexity of atmospheric prediction systems and their importance in safeguarding transportation, commerce, and public safety on the day of the storms.
