Ethiopia Claims Power Over the Nile with Grand Dam Inauguration

After outfoxing Egypt on the diplomatic stage for more than a decade, Ethiopia is set to officially inaugurate one of the world's biggest dams on a tributary of the River Nile, burying a colonial-era treaty that saw the UK guarantee the North African nation the lion's share of its water.

The dam - built on the Blue Nile at a cost of about $5bn (£3.7bn), with a reservoir roughly the size of Greater London - has led to a surge in Ethiopian nationalism, uniting a nation often polarised along ethnic lines and mired in conflict.

Ethiopians may disagree on how to eat injera [their staple food], but they agree on the dam, Moses Chrispus Okello, an analyst with the South Africa-based Institute for Security Studies think-tank, told the BBC.

They do not see it as a pile of concrete in the middle of a river, but as a monument of their achievement because Ethiopians, both at home and in the diaspora, funded the dam's construction. There were waves and waves of appeals for contributions when construction started in 2011.

The government also issued bonds that were bought by companies and workers. So the sense that all Ethiopians own the dam has grown exponentially, and its inauguration is a source of great pride for the nation, Mr Okello said.

Named the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (Gerd), it is Africa's largest hydro-electric plant, raising hopes that not only will it meet the 135 million-strong population's energy needs but it will also give the country energy hegemony and boost its foreign currency earnings, the analyst added.

Ethiopia was planning to increase the sale of electricity to neighbouring countries such as Kenya and Djibouti, with ambitions of building a transmission network to cross the Red Sea to sell to Middle Eastern states like Saudi Arabia, he said.

But for Egypt, the dam represents the opposite of Ethiopia's hopes and ambitions.

It fears that dam could sharply reduce the flow of water to the country, causing water shortages.

About 93% of Egypt is desert, with almost no people. All of us, 107 million people, live on the Nile, a geologist at Egypt's Cairo University, Prof Abbas Sharaky, told the BBC.

Egyptian civilization was built on the Nile. The Nile is our life, he added.

The academic warns that poverty of water could worsen in Egypt because of the dam.

It is storing 64 billion cubic metres, from water which usually flows to Egypt. This is a very big loss for us. Our average annual share is 55.5 billion cubic metres. We do not have any other source of water, but the Nile, Prof Sharaky said.

He added that the Gerd stores about double the amount of water in the Three Gorges Dam in China, which is the biggest dam in the world in generating electricity.

A former negotiator for Ethiopia over the Gerd, Fekahmed Negash, told the BBC that despite enormous diplomatic pressure and even threats of war from Egypt, Ethiopia had stuck with its plan to build the dam because it was vital to its developmental needs.

This includes providing electricity to the estimated 60% of Ethiopians who do not have access to it, however he noted that this would not be easy as a transmission network would have to be built across the vast country with rocky and mountainous terrain.

Prof Sharaky said that despite the Blue Nile being an international river, Ethiopia took a unilateral decision to build the dam - something it succeeded in doing only because Egypt was hit by a revolution at the time, leading to the overthrow of long-serving ruler Hosni Mubarak.

Egypt was in a very bad situation, without a president, and our military was busy inside the country, he said, adding that the North African state had now taken steps to find alternative sources of water - including building the world's largest water treatment plant, and drilling more than 5,000 wells.

Egypt had also been forced to make changes to its agriculture sector - for instance, by reducing the area for rice cultivation, which is water-intensive, from around two million acres to one million acres, the academic said.

Ahead of the Gerd's inauguration on Tuesday, Egypt's Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty stepped up his government's rhetoric against the dam, saying that water security was a red line and the dam posed an existential threat to the North African state.

However, Prof Sharaky ruled out the possibility of Egypt going to war with Ethiopia.

They are our brothers. We drink from the same water. The Nile is coming from them, he said, adding that Egypt would keep trying to resolve the dispute through negotiations.

Mr Fekahmed said Egypt could not resort to bombing the Gerd as it would be suicidal for the country - as well as Sudan, which borders Ethiopia - because all the dam's water would gush out and devastate the two countries.

The Egyptian geologist expressed the fear that Ethiopia could use the dam to exert military power, especially over Sudan - a strategically important ally for Egypt - as the Blue Nile and White Nile meet in Khartoum.

Ethiopia has previously said that studies showed that Egyptians' concerns are unfounded, and the dam is far from areas prone to earthquakes.

So Ethiopians are unlikely to let Egypt dampen their mood as they prepare to celebrate the dam's inauguration and focus on their next goal - to regain access to the Red Sea, which Ethiopia lost when Eritrea gained independence in 1991.