In brief
The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) has stated that 2026 is virtually certain to surpass the 1.5 °C threshold above pre‑industrial levels, making it the second year to exceed this benchmark after 2024. C3S estimates a 20 % chance that 2026 could tie or exceed the record set in 2024, and predicts a four‑year average for 2023‑2026 that also exceeds 1.5 °C. The agency highlighted that the warmest October on record came in 2026, with temperatures 1.75 °C above pre‑industrial levels, marking the third successive month with temperatures above the threshold.
The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) announced on 7 November 2026 that the year 2026 will almost certainly exceed the 1.5 °C threshold of global warming relative to pre‑industrial conditions, declaring it the second calendar year to achieve that milestone after 2024.
C3S, the EU’s dedicated climate monitoring entity, evaluated the latest bolometric temperature measurements taken from an extensive network of satellite and terrestrial sensors. The assessment found that the annual mean global temperature in 2026 will likely surpass 1.5 °C above the pre‑industrial reference baseline – the average temperature before the onset of the Industrial Revolution, roughly prior to 1850. This figure represents a deviation that, if sustained over multiple years, would signal a breach of the long‑term climate stabilization target set by international agreements.
While the January through December aggregate indicated a high likelihood of exceeding the threshold, C3S also presented a probabilistic outlook for the absolute record. A 20 % chance was assigned to 2026 either matching or surpassing the warmth of 2024, the first calendar year to eclipse the 1.5 °C mark. This probability is derived from a combination of deterministic seasonal forecasts and ensemble climate modeling that incorporates anthropogenic forcing scenarios.
The Service emphasized that a single‑year surpassing of the 1.5 °C bar does not, in itself, constitute a formal breach of the long‑term temperature stability goal, which is assessed over a multi‑decade period. Nonetheless, the recurrent crossing of the threshold underscores the rapid pace of anthropogenic climate change.
In tandem with the annual outlook, C3S projected that the mean temperature for the four‑year span from 2023 through 2026 would also exceed 1.5 °C relative to pre‑industrial levels. This sustained high average further strengthens the argument that the temperature rise is no longer a temporary anomaly but part of a continuing trend.
The Service highlighted the temperature in October 2026 as a salient marker of this trend. October was recorded as the warmest month on Earth ever documented, with an average surface temperature 1.75 °C above pre‑industrial levels – a figure exceeding the seasonal mean thresholds that define extreme heat events. The month’s warmth marks the third successive month in which global temperatures have topped the 1.5 °C reference block, signalling persistent heat persistence.
These findings were disseminated by C3S in an official release that mirrored the tone of prior forecasts issued since the 2010s. The agency reiterated that its models are continually calibrated against observational datasets, and that the consensus among peer groups supports the notion of a near‑certain exceedance of the 1.5 °C mark in 2026.
While the Service did not provide explicit policy recommendations in its release, the outcome carries significant implications for national and international climate strategies, especially given the EU’s own legally binding climate objectives. Governments, energy planners, and climate mitigation bodies will likely interpret this forecast as reinforcing the urgency of accelerating decarbonization pathways.
Overall, the Copernicus assessment places 2026 firmly within a trajectory of unprecedented global temperatures, underscoring the increasing velocity at which climate systems are responding to human-induced forcings. The 20 % probability of tying the 2024 record and the projected four‑year average exceeding the 1.5 °C threshold collectively illustrate the heightened frequency of climate extremes in the contemporary era.
