Democrats already had a lot to worry about in the 2026 California governor's race, an election they would typically expect to win easily: too many candidates, low name recognition, and voter apathy.
Then on Sunday, their leading candidate, Representative Eric Swalwell, faced with allegations of sexual assault and misconduct, dropped out of the contest, even as he denied the accusations. His exit threw the Democrats into further chaos and left the party facing a previously unthinkable possibility: could Republicans shut them entirely out of the general election in one of the bluest states in the US?
This would be an unforced error of historic proportions if Democrats fail to coordinate so badly that a Republican wins in a state where Donald Trump's approval rating is a little less than 30%, said Eric Schickler, a political science professor at the University of California, Berkeley.
The San Francisco Chronicle and CNN published allegations by several women about Swalwell's conduct, leading his most prominent backers to abandon him. On Monday, Swalwell announced he would resign from Congress following the initiation of an investigation by the US House of Representatives Ethics Committee. While apologizing for his mistakes in judgement in my past, he vowed to fight the serious, false allegations against him.
However, Democrats' problems in California had begun long before these allegations became public. Sitting Governor Gavin Newsom cannot run again due to term limits, and other politicians with statewide recognition, such as former Vice President Kamala Harris, declined to participate. Eight serious but lesser-known candidates have struggled to gain traction in California's vast media market.
Before Swalwell's exit, a March poll indicated that two Republican candidates garnered significant support as the Democratic field splintered their base. The ongoing California primary system could lead to a situation where there are no Democrats on the gubernatorial ballot in November, meaning the potential for Republicans to dominate in a state without a Republican governor since Arnold Schwarzenegger's departure in 2011.
Swalwell had been gaining momentum in recent weeks, breaking out from the Democratic pack, which left many hopeful for a spot in the general election. With his departure, former Congresswoman Katie Porter and billionaire climate advocate Tom Steyer are now the leading candidates to capture Swalwell's voters.
Despite attempts to position themselves as alternatives, neither candidate has yet secured a clear advantage. Porter, amid allegations of mistreating staff, and Steyer, despite spending $89 million on advertisements, have not seen a corresponding surge in polls.
Political experts note that the Democratics’ situation has reached a new level of uncertainty. Voter indifference may hinder any candidate's efforts to stand out ahead of the June primary, with voters expressing a lack of clarity concerning the candidates and their policies.
As Swalwell's departure resonates through California's political landscape, the implications of a muddled Democratic field could echo nationally, impacting not just California's future but the broader Democratic strategy as they navigate an increasingly competitive electoral environment.
