Trump's Aid Cuts Could Lead to 14 Million Avoidable Deaths, Study Warns

A recent study published in The Lancet outlines the potential fallout from the Trump administration's severe cuts to foreign humanitarian aid, projecting over 14 million premature deaths by 2030, particularly among vulnerable children.

The Trump administration's proposed cuts to the United States' foreign humanitarian aid could result in more than 14 million premature deaths by the year 2030, with a significant portion of those at risk being children. This stark prediction comes from a report published in The Lancet medical journal, co-authored by Davide Rasella from the Barcelona Institute for Global Health. The study suggests that the impact of these funding cuts could be comparable to that of a widespread pandemic or a major armed conflict, disproportionately affecting low- and middle-income countries.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed in March that upwards of 80% of programs managed by the US Agency for International Development (USAID) have been canceled as the administration focuses on what it perceives as wasteful spending. Critics, including global humanitarian organizations, have condemned these cuts, stating that they threaten to reverse two decades of progress in health and well-being for vulnerable populations.

According to the researchers, USAID funding has been instrumental in preventing over 90 million deaths in developing nations between 2001 and 2021. They estimate that a potential 83% reduction in this funding, as indicated by Rubio, could lead to more than 14 million avoidable deaths by 2030, including 4.5 million children under five years old.

The report surfaced as world leaders convened in Seville for a significant United Nations-led aid conference, where the absence of the US's participation was notable. The US has historically been the largest provider of humanitarian assistance globally, with an expenditure of $68 billion on international aid in 2023 alone.

In response to the US cuts, other nations such as the UK, France, and Germany have also reduced their aid budgets, heightening concerns within the international humanitarian community. The United Nations recently characterized these reductions as the worst-ever funding cuts faced by the global humanitarian sector.

Despite Rubio's claims that approximately 1,000 remaining US programs will operate under the State Department's oversight, the reality on the ground remains dire. Reports from UN workers indicate that many individuals, particularly in places like the Kakuma refugee camp in Kenya, are facing severe malnutrition as food rations have plummeted due to funding slashes.