Diplomatic Deadlock: Prospects for a Putin-Zelensky Summit Grow Dim

While discussions about a bilateral meeting between Zelensky and Putin have surfaced, significant obstacles and differing interpretations of diplomatic readiness are likely to hinder any potential summit. Possible venues such as Budapest and Vienna emerge, yet political motivations further complicate the scenario.

Amid a flurry of diplomatic activity, hopes for a meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin seem to be fading rapidly. Just days after Donald Trump expressed optimism about the possibility of such a summit occurring within weeks, discussions about potential locations like Geneva, Vienna, Budapest, and Istanbul highlight the ongoing uncertainty and complexities involved.

Putin and Zelensky have not directly interacted since 2019, prior to Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Trump stated he had initiated arrangements for the meeting after a phone conversation with Putin, suggesting that the Russian leader appeared amenable to the idea. However, the Kremlin's subsequent narrative presented a more ambiguous picture, with aide Yuri Ushakov indicating that discussions merely covered the elevation of representation in talks rather than a direct summit.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz speculated that the summit could materialize "within the next two weeks," yet he expressed doubt about Putin's willingness to engage in the talks. Trump warned of dire consequences for Russia if a reluctance to cooperate persists, though specifics remained vague.

Despite an apparent openness from Moscow to engage in dialogue, the Kremlin's insistence on preconditions that are unlikely to be acceptable to Ukraine casts a shadow over the prospects for progress. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov called for a meeting contingent on resolving various "issues" beforehand—an established tactic often used to obstruct negotiations with Ukraine.

Previously, Trump envoy Steve Witkoff touted Russia's acceptance of security guarantees for Ukraine as a breakthrough. However, it has become apparent that these guarantees originate from Moscow's initial proposals, which Kyiv found unacceptable, primarily due to a potential veto power granted to Russia over Ukraine's defense mechanisms.

Zelensky declared that any negotiations would require a consensus on security assurances from Kyiv's allies beforehand, likely excluding the possibilities proposed by Russia. As each side remains firmly rooted in their respective positions, accusations of undermining peace talks have emerged from both Moscow and Kyiv.

Amid the backdrop of a stalled summit, speculation continues about potential host cities for the talks. Budapest has been suggested, with Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto offering to ensure adequate conditions for the meeting. Nevertheless, Zelensky has voiced concerns regarding Hungary's bias, questioning its neutrality due to Prime Minister Viktor Orban's supportive relations with Russia.

In contrast, French President Emmanuel Macron has mentioned Switzerland as a viable venue due to its established track record of hosting negotiations. Zelensky has also highlighted Vienna, while the Vatican and Saudi Arabia have been suggested as alternative locations capable of facilitating dialogue.

Despite these possibilities, as hostilities between Ukraine and Russia show no signs of abating—evidenced by Ukraine's military actions against Russian infrastructure and significant Russian missile attacks on Ukrainian territory—the likelihood of fruitful negotiations appears increasingly remote. Notably, Zelensky has called for amplification of pressure on Moscow, signaling that genuine engagement in peace talks must originate from a robust commitment to resolving the ongoing conflict.