Viktor Orban's Struggles: Can He Retain Power Amidst Rising Opposition?

Once a celebrated 'strongman' leader, Viktor Orban's grip on power is in jeopardy as a rising opposition led by former allies capitalizes on public discontent and failing governance.

Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban, once admired globally as a 'strongman' leader, is witnessing a notable decline in his authority as opposition forces rally momentum ahead of the upcoming elections in April 2026. For two decades, Orban has been known for his controversial stance against liberal ideologies, promoting an "illiberal democracy" and enacting policies targeting marginalized communities, particularly the LGBTQ population.

In a stark contrast to this image, recent public demonstrations in Budapest have seen burgeoning crowds challenging Orban's governance, with estimates suggesting between 100,000 to 200,000 attendees at the latest Pride celebrations—a significant increase from previous years. This surge in opposition is not just from the liberal left but more intriguingly from within Orban’s own political circle, spearheaded by Peter Magyar, a former ally turned challenger.

Magyar gained prominence after a scandal involving the pardon of an individual connected to child sexual abuse, leading to the resignation of key political figures, including President Katalin Novak. This shake-up has unveiled fragile points in Orban’s long-standing narrative of family values and governance credibility. Magyar’s burgeoning Tisza party has emerged as a significant contender, polling ahead of Orban's Fidesz party in several surveys—a shift indicative of rising dissatisfaction with Orban's policies and governance.

Orban, who has dominated Hungarian politics for a staggering 19 of the 35 years since the collapse of Communism, has relied on a playbook that involves tapping into voter fears and presenting himself as a bulwark against immigration and liberalism. However, challenges such as the worsening state of public services, including healthcare and education, are now being weaponized by the opposition against him.

For years, Orban has been an experienced operator on the European political stage, often likened to leaders like former U.S. President Donald Trump who appreciate his hardline stances. However, as public support shifts, seen in contentious national polls revealing near even splits on LGBTQ issues, Orban risks becoming out of touch with the electorate.

The change is compelled by a public growing weary of stagnating economic conditions, rising living costs, and infrastructural failures. As Magyar relentlessly campaigns and connects with citizens, the essence of Orban’s once-infamous political tactics—an echo chamber of fear and divisive policies—seems to falter against a backdrop of dissent.

Looking ahead, the political landscape in Hungary is at a crossroads. The upcoming election could be pivotal, determining whether Orban retains power or faces the monumental defeat of a leader who has ruled for over a decade and a half. As Magyar's Tisza party competes fiercely, the 2026 elections may unfold as a crucial battle that could reshape the very soul of Hungary's future amid internal strife and external pressures.