Prospective Putin-Zelensky Summit Faces Uncertainty Over Venue and Negotiations

As speculation grows about a possible summit between Zelensky and Putin, diverging expectations, preconditions for negotiations, and disputes over potential venues like Budapest, Istanbul, and Switzerland highlight the complexities and challenges of diplomatic talks amid ongoing conflict.

Ambitious plans for a meeting between President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine and President Vladimir Putin of Russia appear to be faltering, despite optimism expressed by former U.S. President Donald Trump about the likelihood of such a summit within weeks. Locations such as Geneva, Vienna, Budapest, and Istanbul have all been floated as potential venues for this high-stakes encounter. It’s been nearly four years since Zelensky and Putin have directly met, a gap that has only widened since the onset of full-scale hostilities initiated by Russia.

Trump has indicated that he has initiated preparations for the possible summit, suggesting that Putin signaled some level of agreement during a recent phone call. However, the Kremlin's subsequent interpretation of the conversation offered a much more ambiguous outlook on the matter. Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov emphasized the possibility of "raising the level of representatives," which could mean engaging in higher-level talks without necessarily including both presidents.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz suggested that the meeting could happen within the next two weeks but also expressed skepticism over Putin's willingness to attend. Trump has hinted that a lack of cooperation from Putin would put Russia in "a rough" situation, though he hasn’t provided any details.

In reality, the likelihood of a summit seems to be diminishing. While Moscow indicates a willingness to engage in bilateral talks, the conditions it is attaching may be unacceptable to Ukraine. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has stated that Putin would meet Zelensky only if specific "issues" are resolved beforehand – a phrase that resonates with past Kremlin rhetoric, used evasively to dismiss Ukrainian outreach.

Recently, Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff claimed that Russia had accepted security guarantees for Ukraine but disclosed that these would reflect proposals initially rejected by Ukraine in 2022. These would allow Russia a role in vetoing any military support for Ukraine, severely limiting its defenses against potential future aggression. Zelensky, for his part, has insisted that any dialogue with Putin must follow consensus from Kyiv’s allies regarding security guarantees, a framework that Russia would likely reject.

While the feasibility of a Putin-Zelensky summit seems remote, speculation over potential meeting sites persists. Following intensive diplomatic discussions in the U.S., Budapest emerged as a proposed location, with Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto indicating readiness to host the leaders. However, not everyone views Budapest as a neutral site, particularly given Prime Minister Viktor Orban's ties to Putin and his reluctance to support Ukraine.

Zelensky himself called into question Budapest's capacity as a host, suggesting past policies have hindered its support for Ukraine. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk also voiced opposition, referencing Budapest’s role in a historic 1994 deal that meant Ukraine relinquished its nuclear arsenal, which was subsequently violated by Russia's invasion of Crimea in 2014. Tusk quipped about seeking alternative venues for the talks.

Addressing possible options, French President Emmanuel Macron proposed Switzerland, known for its neutral stance and history of facilitating significant discussions, while Zelensky mentioned Vienna. Both nations have indicated their willingness to grant immunity to Putin in the event of peace negotiations. Turkey has also been mentioned, with Istanbul having hosted previous talks, despite yielding minimal results.

Amid these diplomatic initiatives, the conflict continues to rage. Ukraine recently reported striking an oil refinery in Russia’s Rostov region, while Russia unleashed a sizeable wave of attacks on Ukraine, heightening fears of escalation. Zelensky emphasized on social media that meaningful engagement for negotiations appears absent from Moscow, underlining the necessity for pressure to pursue a resolution.