Netanyahu's War Strategy: Political Calculations Amid Crisis

In a critical analysis of Benjamin Netanyahu’s strategic decisions during the Gaza War, this article delves into his internal struggles, the dynamics of his fragile coalition, and the potential impact on regional peace talks.

As the arduous conflict in the Gaza Strip stretched into its sixth month, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confronted a pivotal moment in his leadership. On April 2024, discussions for a cease-fire with Hamas emerged, intended to halt the onslaught and foster conditions for peace negotiations. Netanyahu was poised to present a cease-fire plan during a crucial cabinet meeting while aiming to keep potential opposition ministers in the dark.

The cease-fire proposal, which included a six-week pause in hostilities that promised the return of over 30 hostages held by Hamas, presented a rare opportunity. Moreover, it sought to alleviate the intense suffering experienced by around two million Gazans caught in the relentless conflict. Along with stopping the violence, this move could have catalyzed a historic peace agreement with Saudi Arabia, thereby bolstering Netanyahu's legacy and securing Israel's position in the Arab world.

However, the prospect of peace came fraught with peril. Netanyahu's tenuous coalition relied heavily on far-right ministers intent on maintaining control over Gaza rather than negotiating its end. These leaders advocated for a prolonged conflict, which they believed could restore Israeli settlements in the region. A premature cease-fire risked undermining their support, triggering a governmental collapse, and jeopardizing Netanyahu's position—a threat exacerbated by ongoing corruption trials he faced since 2020.

As discussions unfolded, an aide discreetly delivered the new negotiation strategy to Netanyahu, who carefully considered its ramifications. Just as he began to gain momentum, Bezalel Smotrich, the finance minister known for his hardline views, disrupted the meeting with ominous warnings about the implications of a surrender deal. “If a surrender agreement like this is brought forward, you no longer have a government,” he asserted, highlighting the precariousness of Netanyahu's political landscape.

The tension underscored the extent to which Netanyahu was entangled in his political survival, exemplifying the challenges leaders face when balancing national interests against party loyalty in times of crisis. The continuing war in Gaza not only defined Netanyahu's political strategies but also cast a long shadow over his potential peace-building legacy.