Rising Risks of Asteroid 2024 YR4: A Potential Threat to Earth

Astronomers have determined that the asteroid 2024 YR4 poses an increased risk of impacting Earth, with a current chance of 3.1%. While the threat level remains low, its potential impact could be devastating if it strikes populated areas.

Astronomers have identified the asteroid 2024 YR4 as the most threatening space rock projected to collide with Earth. First discovered in December, this asteroid measures between 130 and 300 feet and is set for a dangerously close approach in December 2032. Currently, calculations estimate a 3.1% probability of impact, a risk level surpassing the infamous asteroid Apophis, which drew significant concern two decades ago. The latter's chance of hitting Earth, initially pegged at 2.7% for 2029, was later revised to zero following further observations.

Despite being smaller than Apophis, asteroid 2024 YR4 could still wreak havoc if it enters Earth’s atmosphere. Should it strike, it's likely to cause immense damage, particularly if it lands in or near densely populated urban areas. The predicted trajectory indicates that while a majority of its path crosses over the ocean, locations such as Bogotá, Lagos, and Mumbai are at some risk.

The potential devastation correlates directly to the asteroid's kinetic energy, which is influenced by its mass. However, due to limited observations of 2024 YR4, its exact mass remains uncertain. "We don’t know how dense or porous it is, so its mass, and therefore the energy it would release if it strikes Earth’s surface or explodes in the atmosphere, is uncertain,” noted physicist Mark Boslough from the Los Alamos National Laboratory.

As the scientific community continues to monitor this asteroid, they emphasize the importance of ongoing observations to refine impact predictions and assess this newfound risk thoroughly.