France's new prime minister, Sébastien Lecornu, has bought himself breathing space after winning two no-confidence motions tabled by the opposition.
In the tightest vote, a motion sponsored by the far left fell 18 votes short of the 289 needed to bring him down. This means that after just five days in office, Lecornu has survived a first major ordeal in parliament and can now focus on the task of passing the 2026 budget.
Any relief for the prime minister is likely to be short-lived, with the far left and far right still gunning to bring him down. The Socialists, who threw a lifeline in the no-confidence motions, have made clear they will not be so indulgent next time round.
Also, any tactical victory enabling the government to endure for now is more than offset by the huge damage to France's reputation caused by weeks of confusion and capitulation.
Appointed by President Emmanuel Macron four weeks ago, then re-appointed in chaotic scenes on Friday after he resigned on Monday, Lecornu only survives thanks to major concessions made to the left. To buy the support of the Socialist Party, which has 65 or so MPs, the prime minister promised to freeze Macron's most important economic reform of his second term – the raising of the retirement age to 64.
But he also made another, possibly more important, gift to the opposition, which has significant implications for the chances of obtaining a budget in time for the end-of-year deadline. By pledging not to resort to the constitutional device known as the 49:3 – which allows governments to force through laws without a vote – Lecornu has handed ultimate control over the budget to the parties in parliament. This shift reflects the decline of presidential authority since Macron's controversial parliamentary dissolution of July 2024.
As a result, Lecornu's promise to assure MPs that they and not the government would have the last word on the future budget was meant to convince the Socialists that he was serious about marking a real 'rupture' from previous administrations. However, this may have also forfeited prospects for debt reduction that financial markets and the European Union are demanding.
The draft budget tabled by Lecornu aims to reduce the deficit to 4.7% of economic output (GDP) by making savings of €30 billion (£26 billion), tightening spending in sectors like health and local administration. Yet, the Socialists, along with the far left and far right, have denounced the proposed budget as a betrayal of the less fortunate in society.
In the broader political context, France's National Assembly remains splintered, with no reliable majority emerging within the last 15 months. President Macron's popularity has plummeted to 14%, and calls for his resignation grow louder as political instability raises concerns about France's future.
