The US appears poised to strike Iran within days. While the potential targets are largely predictable, the outcome is not. So, if no last-minute deal can be reached with Tehran and President Donald Trump decides to order US forces to attack, then what are the possible outcomes?
1. **Targeted, surgical strikes, minimal civilian casualties, a transition to democracy:** US forces could conduct precision strikes targeting military bases and ballistic missile sites, potentially toppling the Iranian regime. However, historical precedents suggest this may not lead to a smooth transition away from dictatorship.
2. **Regime survives but moderates its policies:** In this unlikely scenario, the regime remains intact but moderates its aggressive regional stance, easing domestic policies. The reality, however, shows that the Iranian leadership has shown resilience to change over the years.
3. **Regime collapses, replaced by military rule:** Experts suggest a military government might emerge from the ashes if the current regime falls, potentially leading to continued repression and instability due to the entrenched security apparatus in Iran.
4. **Iran retaliates by attacking US forces and neighbors:** Iran has warned of retaliation against any US attacks, potentially launching strikes against US bases in the region or other allied nations. Such actions could escalate military tensions significantly in the Gulf.
5. **Iran retaliates by laying mines in the Gulf:** This presents a serious threat to global shipping as Iran could resort to mining key maritime routes, where a significant portion of the world's oil supply transits, potentially sparking an international crisis.
6. **Iran retaliates, sinking a US warship:** A more aggressive but less likely outcome could involve Iran using a swarm attack strategy to target US naval vessels, risking a major confrontation between the two nations.
7. **Regime collapses, replaced by chaos:** A feared scenario among regional players is one where Iran falls into chaos, leading to widespread conflict among various ethnic groups and the emergence of a humanitarian crisis as power vacuums develop. This possibility raises alarm among Iran's neighboring countries about the spread of instability.
The escalation of military action by the US could have profound implications, not just for Iran, but for regional stability and global relations.
1. **Targeted, surgical strikes, minimal civilian casualties, a transition to democracy:** US forces could conduct precision strikes targeting military bases and ballistic missile sites, potentially toppling the Iranian regime. However, historical precedents suggest this may not lead to a smooth transition away from dictatorship.
2. **Regime survives but moderates its policies:** In this unlikely scenario, the regime remains intact but moderates its aggressive regional stance, easing domestic policies. The reality, however, shows that the Iranian leadership has shown resilience to change over the years.
3. **Regime collapses, replaced by military rule:** Experts suggest a military government might emerge from the ashes if the current regime falls, potentially leading to continued repression and instability due to the entrenched security apparatus in Iran.
4. **Iran retaliates by attacking US forces and neighbors:** Iran has warned of retaliation against any US attacks, potentially launching strikes against US bases in the region or other allied nations. Such actions could escalate military tensions significantly in the Gulf.
5. **Iran retaliates by laying mines in the Gulf:** This presents a serious threat to global shipping as Iran could resort to mining key maritime routes, where a significant portion of the world's oil supply transits, potentially sparking an international crisis.
6. **Iran retaliates, sinking a US warship:** A more aggressive but less likely outcome could involve Iran using a swarm attack strategy to target US naval vessels, risking a major confrontation between the two nations.
7. **Regime collapses, replaced by chaos:** A feared scenario among regional players is one where Iran falls into chaos, leading to widespread conflict among various ethnic groups and the emergence of a humanitarian crisis as power vacuums develop. This possibility raises alarm among Iran's neighboring countries about the spread of instability.
The escalation of military action by the US could have profound implications, not just for Iran, but for regional stability and global relations.
