WASHINGTON (AP) — The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) is facing heightened scrutiny as political leaders criticize its economic assessments amidst significant legislative changes this summer.
Speaker Mike Johnson described the agency as notorious for getting it wrong, with House Majority Leader Steve Scalise echoing similar sentiments, stating it’s making the same mistakes. President Donald Trump also called the CBO “very hostile.”
However, CBO Director Phillip Swagel insists, We’re just trying to get it right and inform the Congress and the country. There’s no agenda here.” Tasked with delivering impartial economic analyses, the CBO produces projections that often spark political debate.
“Sometimes it’s noise, sometimes it’s not. But we just tune it out. Here we do our work,” Swagel commented, emphasizing accuracy is paramount. As director since 2019, Swagel brings a wealth of experience from both Republican and Democratic administrations.
Swagel explained that current economic shifts in tariffs and immigration are unprecedented challenges for the agency. The changes we’re seeing in our economy are really large,” he said.
Trump's tariffs present a unique situation for the CBO's standard economic models. According to Swagel, these tariffs could potentially lower the national deficit by $4 trillion over the next decade, but they also risk causing elevated inflation rates for businesses and consumers.
In regards to immigration, Swagel noted both positive and negative fiscal pressures, stressing that while immigrants contribute to labor force growth and revenue, they also place fiscal burdens on state and local governments.
As the CBO grapples with the complexities of analyzing economic policies, Swagel remains committed to transparency and neutrality, stating, It’s important for the country to have a group of analysts who don’t have an opinion — who are just saying, ‘Here’s the facts.’”
Despite the criticism, the CBO remains focused on its mission to deliver critical insights into legislation's economic implications, striving to maintain its role as a trusted source of information amid the political fray.
