As India surpasses China in population, leaders in southern states advocate for higher birth rates in response to declining fertility and fears of electoral and financial disadvantages. Demographic experts warn of the challenges posed by an aging population and emphasize the need for strategic policies to address the changing dynamics.
India’s Population Dilemma: More Children Amidst a Demographic Shift
India’s Population Dilemma: More Children Amidst a Demographic Shift
With India now the most populous nation, recent calls for boosting birth rates highlight concerns about declining fertility and rapid aging.
In 2022, India overtook China to become the world's most populous nation, a milestone marked by the United Nations. Yet, with approximately 1.45 billion people, discussions around boosting birth rates have gained traction, particularly among government leaders in southern states like Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. Recently, Andhra Pradesh considered incentives to encourage larger families, attributing its motivations to a declining fertility rate and an aging population. The state has even abandoned its "two-child policy" for local elections — a move mirrored by Telangana which may soon follow suit.
The drop in fertility is stark; India's birth rate has plummeted from 5.7 per woman in 1950 to just two today. In fact, 17 of India's 29 states and territories now fall below the replacement level necessary to maintain a stable population. The southern states, recognized for reaching these fertility milestones ahead of the country as a whole, show significant declines — Karnataka at 1.6 and Tamil Nadu at 1.4 — comparable to some European countries.
However, concerns loom regarding how these shifts in demographic trends may affect electoral representation amidst an impending delimitation of electoral seats planned for 2026. The fear is that populous northern states, like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, will gain more parliamentary seats, placing economically successful southern states at a disadvantage. Srinivas Goli, a demographic expert, highlights that despite effective population control policies in the south, the fear of penalties due to reduced representation persists.
As India faces its first substantial electoral restructuring since 1976, many demographers warn of an accelerated aging crisis. Unlike France and Sweden, which took decades to see similar demographic shifts, India is expected to see its senior population grow from 7% to 14% within just 28 years. This rapid aging is concerning given that a significant proportion of older Indians belong to the economically disadvantaged segment of society.
Adding to this complexity, Mohan Bhagwat of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh recently urged couples to have at least three children to ensure a sustainable future for the nation. While demographic trends indicate potential declines in the population, experts like Tim Dyson caution that advocating for increased birth rates may not yield significant results. Countries such as South Korea and Greece, battling similar issues, highlight the difficulties in reversing such trends.
The overarching question remains: who will support the workforce gap created by declining birth rates? While many developed nations combat their demographic crises by enhancing the productivity of aging populations, India must adapt its strategies to extend working years and improve elderly care. Goli notes that India has a limited window until 2047 to harness its demographic dividend effectively, yet with only 15-20% utilization currently, there’s immense potential for growth. As India navigates its unique demographic landscape, the focus must rightly shift to fostering economic stability and societal support for its aging population.
The drop in fertility is stark; India's birth rate has plummeted from 5.7 per woman in 1950 to just two today. In fact, 17 of India's 29 states and territories now fall below the replacement level necessary to maintain a stable population. The southern states, recognized for reaching these fertility milestones ahead of the country as a whole, show significant declines — Karnataka at 1.6 and Tamil Nadu at 1.4 — comparable to some European countries.
However, concerns loom regarding how these shifts in demographic trends may affect electoral representation amidst an impending delimitation of electoral seats planned for 2026. The fear is that populous northern states, like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, will gain more parliamentary seats, placing economically successful southern states at a disadvantage. Srinivas Goli, a demographic expert, highlights that despite effective population control policies in the south, the fear of penalties due to reduced representation persists.
As India faces its first substantial electoral restructuring since 1976, many demographers warn of an accelerated aging crisis. Unlike France and Sweden, which took decades to see similar demographic shifts, India is expected to see its senior population grow from 7% to 14% within just 28 years. This rapid aging is concerning given that a significant proportion of older Indians belong to the economically disadvantaged segment of society.
Adding to this complexity, Mohan Bhagwat of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh recently urged couples to have at least three children to ensure a sustainable future for the nation. While demographic trends indicate potential declines in the population, experts like Tim Dyson caution that advocating for increased birth rates may not yield significant results. Countries such as South Korea and Greece, battling similar issues, highlight the difficulties in reversing such trends.
The overarching question remains: who will support the workforce gap created by declining birth rates? While many developed nations combat their demographic crises by enhancing the productivity of aging populations, India must adapt its strategies to extend working years and improve elderly care. Goli notes that India has a limited window until 2047 to harness its demographic dividend effectively, yet with only 15-20% utilization currently, there’s immense potential for growth. As India navigates its unique demographic landscape, the focus must rightly shift to fostering economic stability and societal support for its aging population.
