The High Stakes of Territorial Concessions in Ukraine's Donbas

With U.S. President Trump's upcoming discussions with Volodymyr Zelensky centered around the Donbas region, many Ukrainians grapple with feelings of betrayal and loss. Polls indicate a strong resistance to conceding territory, as the historical and emotional significance of Donbas weighs heavily on the populace, igniting fears of further Russian aggression.

The lives of those living near the front lines in the embattled Donbas region of Ukraine have become a daily battle for survival. In a somewhat concerning turn of events, prior to his meeting with Vladimir Putin, President Donald Trump mentioned the idea of "land swaps" as a component for peace negotiations, leaving many Ukrainians bewildered. The implications of what land would be exchanged remain largely unclear, raising questions about whether Ukraine could be expected to barter part of its territory in a bid for peace.

As President Zelensky prepares to meet Trump, reports suggest the U.S. administration may press for a complete storming of the eastern provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk in exchange for Russia agreeing to stabilize the remaining front lines. Such a proposition raises alarms, especially since Luhansk is nearing full Russian control, while Ukraine continues to hold around 30% of Donetsk—areas which have already cost tens of thousands of lives to defend.

Historically significant, the Donbas region is rife with mineral wealth and industrial resources. Ukrainian historian Yaroslav Hrytsak has described the potential surrender of Donbas as a “tragedy.” “This is Ukrainian territory,” he noted, highlighting the cultural and historical contributions of the region, which has produced notable figures and continues to shape national identity.

The ongoing conflict has displaced at least 1.5 million Ukrainians from Donbas since the onset of Russian hostilities in 2014, with millions remaining under occupation. Reflecting on the situation, Andriy Borylo, a military chaplain in Sloviansk, voiced deep concerns about the impact of foreign negotiations on his community's future. "There is a feeling of resignation and abandonment... it is a betrayal," he lamented.

While Zelensky has maintained a firm stance against conceding any part of Donbas, public sentiment starkly counters any formal land exchanges; recent polling indicates that around 75% of Ukrainians oppose giving territory to Russia. Amid the harrowing backdrop of war fatigue, there persists a strong desire among many for an end to suffering—in a conflict that has claimed countless lives. Emergency worker Yevhen Tkachov succinctly summarized local sentiment, asserting, "Life is more important than territory."

However, the intricate legal landscape complicates the possibility of any such agreement; under the constitution, territory transfers necessitate parliamentary approval and a public referendum. The chances of a simple de-facto surrender could arise without formal recognition, but the mechanisms for such actions remain unclear. Many in the Ukrainian government express uncertainty over the procedure needed to reach a land cede agreement.

As Zelensky heads to Washington, juxtaposed against Trump's volatile history with Ukraine, there remains a glimmer of hope—Trump has hinted at a reconsideration of security guarantees for Ukraine. These assurances resonate strongly with the populace, who collectively agree that any agreement regarding territorial concessions must be anchored in solid security commitments.

In an indication of just how high the stakes are, Tkachov argued any land exchange would need "real guarantees" and not mere promises. He postulated that concrete military support could potentially make concessions more palatable.

As discussions unfold regarding the future of the Donbas, the potential for losing more than just territory looms large over both policymakers and civilians alike. Brian Dribnytsia, a Ukrainian historian, aptly emphasized that discussions must factor in the millions of lives intertwined with the fate of the region. Ultimately, regardless of its political and cultural prominence, “any corner of Ukraine is Ukraine,” he affirmed, reminding all of the humanity at the heart of this conflict.