Implications of the Pakistan-Saudi Defence Pact: A Strategic Concern for India

Tue Sep 23 2025 19:59:57 GMT+0300 (Eastern European Summer Time)

The recent defence pact between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia raises significant alarms in India, highlighting shifting alliances in the region and the potential for increased geopolitical tensions.

The signing of a mutual defence pact between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia has drawn scrutiny from India, particularly in light of historical animosities and ongoing regional conflicts. This agreement could alter the strategic landscape, complicating India's diplomatic relationships and security calculations as it responds to Pakistan's strengthened military ties. Experts are divided over the immediate implications, with some seeing a potential threat to India while others emphasize Saudi Arabia's balanced approach in its ties with New Delhi.

The recent embrace between Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman marks a pivotal moment, culminating in the signing of a strategic mutual defence agreement in Riyadh. This development has alarmed analysts in India, as the pact indicates a closer military alliance between Pakistan—an Islamic nuclear power—and Saudi Arabia, the most influential monarchy in the Gulf.

A senior Saudi source described the agreement as the institutionalization of longstanding cooperation; however, India perceives it as a direct threat. The timing of the pact coincides with heightened tensions between India and Pakistan, including a recent four-day conflict over Kashmir. Analysts fear that the commitment within the pact stating that any aggression against one nation would be viewed as aggression against both could escalate existing tensions.

Indian commentators are vocal about their concerns. Brahma Chellaney, a prominent strategist, opines that Riyadh's action reflects an ambition to reshape its regional influence, potentially granting protection and military capabilities to a typically vulnerable Pakistan. Former Foreign Secretary Kanwal Sibal warns that establishing an unstable Pakistan as a security partner poses risks to India's national security.

While the Modi administration has expressed diplomatic caution, the sentiment among experts suggests this agreement could redefine regional power dynamics. Some analysts argue that India might be overstating the implications, given Saudi Arabia's ongoing economic and security ties with India. Yet, the deal could embed Pakistan further into Middle Eastern security frameworks, complicating India's own strategic maneuvers.

Several analysts emphasize that this agreement is not merely a military pact but a shift in regional alliances marked by decreasing faith in U.S. security guarantees amidst rising threats from Iran and Israel. By forging this agreement, Saudi Arabia appears to be diversifying its security partnerships, leveraging Pakistan's nuclear deterrent as part of its broader strategic calculus.

As implications unfold, India's response will hinge on both the evolving nature of the Saudi-Pakistan alliance and how it interacts with the country's deeply entrenched historical conflicts. The path ahead is uncertain, but it is clear that India will be monitoring developments closely.