A new UK-led study indicates that as of June 30, 2024, the death toll could reach over 64,000, raising concerns about the accuracy of official figures amid the ongoing conflict.
**Underestimated Death Toll in Gaza Conflict: New Research Reveals Alarming Figures**
**Underestimated Death Toll in Gaza Conflict: New Research Reveals Alarming Figures**
Research published in *The Lancet* suggests that the death toll from the Gaza war may be much higher than previously reported by the Hamas-run health ministry.
The Palestinian casualty count in the Gaza war is potentially much higher than the numbers reported by the health ministry, according to research findings published in *The Lancet* medical journal. Conducted by a UK-led team, the study covers the initial nine months of conflict following Hamas's attack on Israel on October 7, 2023. Utilizing a combination of data from the ministry, an online survey of bereaved relatives, and obituary records, researchers estimate that approximately 64,260 Palestinians died due to traumatic injuries, suggesting an under-reporting of deaths by around 41%.
There has been significant contention regarding the Palestinian death toll, with the United Nations endorsing the health ministry's figures as reliable despite their limitations, particularly in distinguishing between combatants and civilians. A UN report highlighted that a majority of validated casualties during a six-month analysis were women and children, contradicting claims from Israel, which states that it only targets combatants.
In August, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) claimed to have "eliminated over 17,000 terrorists"; however, the methodology behind such figures remains murky. The IDF asserts it strives to minimize civilian harm in its operations. Compounding the difficulty of obtaining accurate casualty reports, Israel has restricted international media access to Gaza, posing challenges for independent verification of ongoing events.
The research employed a "capture-recapture" statistical method, previously utilized to assess death tolls in other regions impacted by conflict. This approach examines how many individuals were repeatedly counted across various datasets. The substantial overlaps observed indicate that the total number of deaths directly due to traumatic injuries could surpass the counts reported by the health ministry. The study suggests a potential death toll between 55,298 and 78,525, remarkably higher than the health ministry's reported figure of 37,877.
Nevertheless, researchers cautioned that these estimates might fluctuate based on the technical nuances of the analysis, particularly in accurately identifying deaths by "traumatic injury." Errors in this process could lead to significant variations in the reported estimates. Additionally, the research indicated that 59% of those killed, for whom age and sex data were available, were women, children, and the elderly.
The escalation of violence that led to the war was sparked by Hamas's attack, which resulted in roughly 1,200 deaths and the kidnapping of 251 individuals into Gaza. In retaliation, Israel launched a large-scale military operation against Gaza, with the health ministry estimating 46,006 casualties, predominantly civilians, attributed to the Israeli campaign. As the situation evolves, the reliability of reported figures continues to be a focal point of international scrutiny.
There has been significant contention regarding the Palestinian death toll, with the United Nations endorsing the health ministry's figures as reliable despite their limitations, particularly in distinguishing between combatants and civilians. A UN report highlighted that a majority of validated casualties during a six-month analysis were women and children, contradicting claims from Israel, which states that it only targets combatants.
In August, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) claimed to have "eliminated over 17,000 terrorists"; however, the methodology behind such figures remains murky. The IDF asserts it strives to minimize civilian harm in its operations. Compounding the difficulty of obtaining accurate casualty reports, Israel has restricted international media access to Gaza, posing challenges for independent verification of ongoing events.
The research employed a "capture-recapture" statistical method, previously utilized to assess death tolls in other regions impacted by conflict. This approach examines how many individuals were repeatedly counted across various datasets. The substantial overlaps observed indicate that the total number of deaths directly due to traumatic injuries could surpass the counts reported by the health ministry. The study suggests a potential death toll between 55,298 and 78,525, remarkably higher than the health ministry's reported figure of 37,877.
Nevertheless, researchers cautioned that these estimates might fluctuate based on the technical nuances of the analysis, particularly in accurately identifying deaths by "traumatic injury." Errors in this process could lead to significant variations in the reported estimates. Additionally, the research indicated that 59% of those killed, for whom age and sex data were available, were women, children, and the elderly.
The escalation of violence that led to the war was sparked by Hamas's attack, which resulted in roughly 1,200 deaths and the kidnapping of 251 individuals into Gaza. In retaliation, Israel launched a large-scale military operation against Gaza, with the health ministry estimating 46,006 casualties, predominantly civilians, attributed to the Israeli campaign. As the situation evolves, the reliability of reported figures continues to be a focal point of international scrutiny.
