Burundi's Political Landscape Shifts Amidst Economic Turmoil

Voters in Burundi prepare for elections while facing severe economic challenges. The ruling CNDD-FDD party's popularity is tested amidst claims of electoral intimidation and discussions on potentially establishing a one-party system. The economic landscape remains grim, with rampant inflation and fuel shortages exacerbating conditions for the citizens.

Burundi is gearing up for a pivotal electoral process as the nation grapples with soaring inflation, persistent fuel shortages, and allegations of political suppression under the ruling CNDD-FDD party, which has held power for two decades. Although seats in the National Assembly, Senate, and local councils are on the line, President Évariste Ndayishimiye is secure in his position, having a seven-year term set to conclude in 2027.

Despite the political atmosphere of uncertainty, the CNDD-FDD, a former rebel faction, prepares to defend its standing against increasing discontent among the populace. Residents have seen the cost of essential goods rise sharply, intensifying the financial struggles of a country already ranked as one of the poorest globally.

Opposition leaders, such as Gabriel Banzawitonde of the APDR party, have voiced concerns over harassment from CNDD-FDD's youth wing, the Imbonerakure. Many citizens reportedly feel so threatened that they refrain from displaying support for any party apart from the ruling one. Nevertheless, they maintain a commitment to vote in favor of opposition candidates once behind closed doors.

Political analysts express trepidation about discussing the elections publicly, fearing possible repercussions. One unnamed expert remarked on the systematic advantages afforded to the CNDD-FDD, suggesting that a victory for the ruling party seems predetermined. Furthermore, some factions within the party have proposed the idea of transitioning to a one-party system, claiming it would streamline development efforts.

Burundi's economy is faltering, constrained by chronic foreign currency shortages necessary for imports, including essential goods and fuel. Current reserves leave the country with barely a month's supply of currency, drastically underperforming against the regional need of at least four months' worth. Long lines of vehicles at gas stations are becoming typical, with many drivers waiting for days to secure fuel, which is subject to government rationing.

Economic statistics are alarmingly low, with the World Bank reporting an annual income of only $193 for the average Burundian in 2023, the lowest among East African Community members. Economist Faustin Ndikumana stresses the lack of good governance and anticipates continued deterioration without significant reforms. The ruling party, however, maintains an opposing narrative, with President Ndayishimiye asserting past improvements in living standards over the years, reflecting a stark disconnect with the public's experience.

The CNDD-FDD frequently points out its historical role in liberating the Hutu majority from decades of perceived oppression by the Tutsis, reinforcing its claim to power. With these elections looming, the future trajectory of Burundi's democracy remains uncertain and fraught with challenges.