On a scorchingly hot day in the American Midwest, Tim Maxwell is voicing his fears about the future of farming. The 65-year-old has worked the fields since he was a teenager. He now owns a grain and hog farm near Moscow, Iowa - but he's unsure about its prospects.
I'm in a little bit of a worried place, says Mr Maxwell, who wears a baseball cap bearing the logo of a corn company. He is concerned that American farmers aren't able to sell their crops to international markets in the way they could in previous years, in part because of the fallout from President Trump's tariffs. Our yields, crops and weather are pretty good - but our [interest from] markets right now is on a low, he says. It's going to put stress on some farmers.
His fears are not unique. US agricultural groups warn that American farmers are facing widespread difficulty this year, mostly due to economic tensions with China. Since April, the two countries have been locked in a trade war, causing a sharp fall in the number of Chinese orders for American crops.
American farmers are wounded as a result, economists say. The number of small business bankruptcies filed by farmers has reached a five-year high, according to data compiled by Bloomberg in July. With all this economic pain, rural areas could well have turned against Trump. But that doesn't seem to be happening.
Rural Americans were one of the president's most loyal voting blocs in last year's election, when he won the group by 40 percentage points over Kamala Harris, beating his own margins in 2020 and 2016, according to Pew Research analysis. Polling experts say that in the countryside, he is still broadly popular.
Mr Maxwell says he is sticking with Trump, despite his own financial worries. Our president told us it was going to take time to get all these tariffs in place, he says. I am going to be patient. I believe in our president. So why do so many farmers and other rural Americans broadly continue to back Trump even while feeling an economic squeeze that is driven in part by tariffs - the president's signature policy?
Experts suggest that the loyalty stems from a broader political shift that has been occurring in rural America since the 1980s, as a response to feelings of alienation and economic disadvantage compared to urban areas. Many farmers feel their identity and values are aligned with the Republican Party, which they view as a champion for their interests. This rural identity, shaped by shared grievances, remains a vital aspect of political allegiance despite economic hardships.
As harvest season approaches, the American Soybean Association (ASA) has indicated that soybean orders from China are significantly lower than expected, adding to the uncertainty faced by farmers. Many remain hopeful that Trump's strategies will eventually lead to better conditions and fair trade, despite the present turmoil.
For farmers, it's a precarious balancing act of holding onto their political beliefs while navigating the challenging landscape of modern agriculture. The question remains: will their faith in Trump's leadership yield the results they expect?
